The short-lived war, which ended at 7:00 a.m. according to Trump’s social media post, confirmed two ancient truths. Israel does not wage war for long, and you cannot fight geography. It is clear to me that Trump wants to end the battle quickly with his virtual triumph — US aircraft made a decisive contribution to the victory, Iran’s nuclear program has been destroyed, and we are starting a new round of negotiations after the bombing.
Now everything depends on whether the parties can maintain the ceasefire. It is not difficult to assess the real achievements of the Washington-Tel Aviv coalition. None of the goals that the allies could have set for themselves have been achieved. Iran has retained its enriched uranium and most of its centrifuges.
The GBU-57 bomb has been tested in real warfare, but the results are unknown. However, given the depth of the facility near Fordow, it is unlikely to have been impressive. At the same time, more than half of the stockpile of these unique munitions has been used up.
The Iranian army has been disgraced three times, and its weak air defense has been destroyed without any losses for the enemy. It would be difficult to describe the army and IRGC command as competent. Under these conditions, the Iranian regime has shown political stability and has not even faltered.
If you put all this together, the result cannot be called a victory. Bombing from a great distance is not the tool that can bring it about. And the allies, realizing that the raid had failed, decided to declare a virtual victory. It is quite possible that most viewers in the West will believe it.
A new round of the same negotiations on Tehran’s nuclear program lies ahead. The Ayatollah’s behavior will show us how confident he feels. That is, how successful the US has been in slowing down his nuclear program.
Well, if the Ayatollah digs in his heels again, Trump will have to decide whether to bomb the enemy for another week. However, he will now understand that the GBU-57 bomb in the mountains is not a very convincing argument. As I said, this whole operation is part of the negotiation process, not a real war.
