No one can answer the question in the headline right now. It is still impossible to reliably assess the effectiveness of Israel’s attack. The main subject of the conflict — uranium enrichment facilities — remains intact. And if Israel is determined to destroy the enemy’s nuclear weapons complex (it’s time to call it that), then a long war lies ahead.
The Israeli military put all its available force into the first strike. The operation was a combined one: internal agents in Iran played a crucial role, helping to disable part of the air defense and radar systems. These losses are the most painful for any country and cannot be quickly compensated for.
And considering that there are a thousand kilometers between Israel and Iran, it takes at least 40 minutes for planes to reach the border. This is enough time to get all aircraft in the air, withdraw air defense systems from their positions, and save the state’s main means of defense. We will assess the losses later, but it is already clear that Iran was caught off guard.
For the second time in a short period (after the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ drone attack on Russian strategic air bases), short-range attack weapons were created in advance within a large state, and the attack yielded good results. As for the scenarios for the development of the conflict between Iran and Israel, much depends on internal politics and circumstances. If Netanyahu wants to destroy the centrifuges, he will have to wage a long-distance conflict, and there is little hope for success.
Most likely, the mullahs will build their own atomic bomb. They have been clearly shown that this is the only right path. Whether Iran is ready for war or will rush to end everything with an agreement is still unknown. The situation in Tehran is also very unstable.
This analysis really highlights the complexity and uncertainty of the situation 😕✈️. The involvement of internal agents inside Iran adds a layer of intrigue that we don’t often see in open conflicts. It’s striking how technology and preparation can change the balance of power, yet it seems like a long and difficult road ahead for any decisive outcome. The geopolitical stakes here are massive, and the possibility of a prolonged conflict only makes the whole region more fragile. Definitely a reminder of how delicate international relations are when it comes to nuclear threats ⚠️🌍.