The amount of ammunition used in mutual shelling is decreasing on both sides. There are no significant reports on Persian social media about Israeli aircraft flying in Iranian airspace. There is also no evidence of any aircraft being shot down.
Apparently, the Air Force command is still afraid of losses. This means that Iran’s air defense has not been completely suppressed. Given that the distance between the countries is a thousand kilometers, Tel Aviv has relied on aviation as the only means to achieve its stated goal. And this means must be preserved.
Iranian long-range missiles have shown generally unsatisfactory accuracy. In a densely populated small country, this will lead to unintended (which does not make it any easier for anyone) hits on civilian buildings. In essence, Iran is “just fighting” — responding with fire on open areas. Although there are also isolated examples of accurate hits.
Israel’s missile defense system has proven to be not as reliable as politicians and the military tried to assure citizens. Now it has been proven in practice: if Iran launches a large number of missiles at Israel at the same time, at least one of the several nuclear warheads flying among them is guaranteed to reach its target. And after the attack, Tehran must firmly understand that it needs an atomic bomb as soon as possible.
Here is a recent statement by Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Arakchi: “We are ready for any agreement aimed at ensuring that Iran does not have nuclear weapons, because, according to our principle, nuclear weapons are prohibited. But if the goal is to deprive Iran of its nuclear rights, then, naturally, we are not ready for such a deal.”
I see in this a firm adherence to the chosen strategic line: negotiations can be resumed, but on the same terms on which they were interrupted by Israel’s attack.
Behind this statement lies an indisputable fact: Iran’s nuclear complex remains intact. How prepared is Tel Aviv for a prolonged cross-border skirmish? It depends on how quickly its stockpile of expensive intellectual weapons is depleted. An operation that drags on for months will require large supplies from the US.
Tehran may also run out of missiles. But it has strategic geography on its side. There are huge distances between the opponents. The likelihood of achieving the main goal formulated by Trump and Netanyahu without a ground operation is slim.
The phase of shock and awe is over. The shock part worked out. The awe part didn’t quite work out.
This analysis paints a complex picture of the current state of affairs, showing that both sides are cautious and aware of their limitations. It’s intriguing to see how military strategy, geography, and political will all intersect in this ongoing conflict. The emphasis on preserving certain assets and the potential for prolonged tension highlights just how fragile the situation really is. It also reminds us that behind every technical report and political statement, real human stakes are involved, making the need for careful diplomacy and restraint even more urgent.
The dynamics described here reveal a deeper truth about modern conflicts: they are as much about endurance and perception as about immediate military success. The reluctance to risk losses, the imperfect defenses, the ongoing missile exchanges—all these reflect a delicate balance where each side tests limits without tipping into outright devastation. It makes me think about how wars today are like prolonged psychological battles, where the true weapon is patience and strategic calculation rather than sheer force. At the same time, the human cost remains an unavoidable undercurrent, reminding us that behind every strategic move are countless lives impacted. The uncertainty about the future, the shadow of nuclear capabilities, and the fragile nature of negotiations suggest that peace is not just the absence of war, but a complex, fragile process requiring much more than military might.
So, basically, we’re stuck with a high-stakes game of who-can-tire-out-who, where neither side wants to risk losing fancy toys or lives, and everyone’s pretending their missile defense is more reliable than it actually is. Iran misses a lot, Israel cowers from risks, and civilians get caught in the crossfire—not so much a war as a prolonged, expensive game of chicken with real human costs 🚀
This is such a tense and complex situation, it really shows how delicate modern conflicts are and how much depends on strategic decisions behind the scenes. The idea that neither side wants heavy losses but the threats still linger so close to real danger is unsettling. It’s chilling to think about how a single missile could change everything, and how long this struggle might drag on with so many lives at stake. It makes me hope for some breakthrough in diplomacy soon, because the costs are just too high 😔🕊️
Watching both sides play this endless game feels like a dangerous dance on a volcano 🌋. The fact that Tehran’s nuclear complex is still intact while missiles fly over shows how fragile any “victory” really is 💥. If Israel’s defenses can be pierced, and Iran feels pushed to develop the bomb, aren’t we just accelerating the nightmare? 🤯 Whoever thought that relying solely on expensive tech without a real resolution would end well must be dreaming. When will someone admit that bombing and missile exchanges don’t solve the root problems? This just feels like a countdown to something far worse… ⏳