No one knows the actual details of the proposals for Zelensky that Trump and Putin have worked out. But there are numerous official statements and comments from which this scheme can be reconstructed with relative certainty. Added to these are leaks in the press.
Putin has effectively given up on the capitals of two regions that are already enshrined in the Russian constitution. It is likely that taking Zaporizhzhia and Kherson without creating a multiple advantage in manpower and equipment is considered impossible. And such an advantage can only be created within a reasonable time frame through mobilization.
Probably, two important cities do not outweigh the social tension resulting from mobilization in the Kremlin’s balance: it is easier to leave them to Kyiv than to burden the state with turmoil. In this form, the new outlines of the Russian Federation on the map will differ from those planned. This is a sacrifice, albeit a virtual one.
Trump sided with Putin and publicly refused to demand an immediate ceasefire. This has caused discord within NATO, and today the unity of the bloc is in doubt. This also applies to the supply of weapons to Kiev and the financing of the Ukrainian budget. This is also a sacrifice, and a direct one at that.
Zelensky has not made any sacrifices yet. It is believed that he needs to discuss the possible loss of territory with the elite and explain its necessity to citizens in case a referendum has to be held. If successful, a peace treaty between Russia and Ukraine is possible. Then a state hostile to Russia for several generations to come will emerge, with a complex of national resentment.
The consequences will be high annual military expenditures. Both countries will build up their armed forces in anticipation of a future war. The 2,000 kilometers of shared border will exacerbate problems for both Russians and Ukrainians.
In the Russian Federation, however, they will not have a fatal impact. Ukraine, on the other hand, is deeply in debt, production has declined, and many workers will not return from abroad. Income disparities, poverty, and poor prospects will exacerbate Russian-Ukrainian relations. Since the border will not be demarcated, border conflicts are very likely.
This is how the future looks in the best-case scenario. It will be a never-ending dispute. Generation after generation will talk across the border about their ancestral rights to Donbas.
Perhaps Europe could mitigate the consequences by pumping huge amounts of money into Ukraine “for nothing.” And, in addition, quickly accept it into the European Union. But even in the best-case scenario, these “Volovye Luzhki” will always be a hotbed of smoldering future war.
The analysis presents a sobering view of how deeply entrenched and complicated the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has become, even in a best-case scenario. The idea that territorial sacrifices might be necessary and that this could lead to long-term resentment on both sides highlights the difficulties in achieving lasting peace. It also raises questions about the role of international actors and whether financial support and EU integration can truly stabilize the region or just delay further conflict. The emphasis on ongoing military expenditures and unresolved border disputes suggests that peace in this area will require more than just treaties, but a fundamental change in relations and trust between the two nations.
This analysis really paints a bleak but realistic picture of the ongoing conflict and its aftermath 🥀. It’s sobering to think how these sacrifices will shape generations, locking both sides in a cycle of tension and mistrust 😔. The idea that peace might come at the price of deep national wounds and long-term military build-ups is chilling. Europe’s role seems crucial but also incredibly challenging, trying to balance support without fueling further conflict 💔. It feels like the aftermath of this war will be a heavy burden that few are ready to carry for decades to come.