During the period of preparation and conduct of high-level negotiations, the Russian army sharply reduced the number of drones in raids on targets deep inside Ukraine. Since the conveyor belt operates according to its own rules, there is a serious accumulation of “Geraniums” in warehouses and units. Given the recent change in targeting policy, this could have serious consequences.
Ukraine did not respond in kind to the reduction in the intensity of bombing of energy facilities. On the contrary, attacks on oil refineries and storage facilities have increased. If we consider only the damaged facilities, they can be estimated at more than 10% across the country. In reality, it is not the capacity of the facility that matters, but the time required for its repair. More often than not, production either does not stop completely or is restarted within a matter of days.
But Kiev’s persistence has finally provoked a reciprocal response. Russia has launched a campaign of bombing Ukraine’s gas production and transportation infrastructure. On the night of August 21, the entire complex of enterprises at the Shebelinsky gas field in the Kharkiv region was struck. This accounts for half of the country’s gas production. At the same time, the Pavlograd compressor station was put out of action.
A day earlier, the oil complex in Izmail near Odessa (supplies from Romania), the oil refinery in Kremenchug, the gas station in Lubny, and the gas distribution station in the Odessa region were attacked with “Geraniums.” The recent strike on Azerbaijan’s SOCAR oil depot near Odessa is seen as a consequence of the deterioration of relations between Putin and Aliyev. But if we consider it as part of a campaign, its purpose becomes clear.
Strikes on power grids at the time led to Ukraine being dark from satellite view. And yet the main goal was to cut off power to industrial production, railways, and generally reduce the country’s defense potential. At least partially, the goal was achieved. But in the end, the bombing stopped as suddenly as it had begun, the destruction of power grids was abandoned, and a “red line” emerged. There remains a persistent suspicion that this is the result of secret agreements.
And now, before our very eyes, another “red line” has been crossed: in three years, the heating supply to the Ukrainian population has not been cut off once. There is very little time left before the cold weather sets in. If the citizens of Ukraine face it without heating, the number of those willing to give up part of their territory is likely to increase.
Even if it does not come to a referendum, we can expect a decrease in the number of supporters of fighting to the last. This means a decline in support for the government, an increase in desertions, and flight abroad. The reality of this scenario depends on the persistence of the Russian command (it is necessary to keep gas facilities inoperable) and how cold the coming winter will be.
