At 8:15 p.m. Moscow time, Trump will begin to pressure Zelensky one-on-one. His task is to obtain agreement on the voluntary transfer to Russia of the remaining areas of Donetsk Oblast under Ukrainian control. The support group that arrived in Washington is impressive, consisting entirely of heads of state. They will all wait in Trump’s reception room so as not to turn the negotiations into a free-for-all.
Why have they all flocked to a meeting that was not even on their schedule a week ago? Simply because everyone understands that a decisive moment has arrived. Without exaggeration, the consequences could be fateful.
The Ukrainian president himself is determined to first achieve a complete cessation of hostilities, which is why he has agreed to discuss something. The main question everyone is asking is: what is Zelensky being offered in exchange for these lands without a fight? Everyone is talking about an unequal exchange.
In fact, Moscow is offering Kiev its own lands, which it will inevitably occupy in the future. That is, it is an exchange of real land for the cancellation of inevitable territorial losses in the future. The cessation of hostilities is a guarantee that the Russian Armed Forces will not occupy any more land. That is why they are asking for the Ukrainian remnants of Donbas in exchange for the cessation of hostilities. I am convinced that the Ukrainian mentality does not accept such virtual exchanges. The idea will not receive mass support among the people.
What can Zelensky hope for? Exclusively on the strength of the army. And that is precisely what is in question. I argue that the strategic impasse, which Zaluzhny correctly pointed out in his famous article (which cost him his job), has been overcome at this stage. Practice has proven that an offensive is possible. This means that victory is possible. But it will be a victory for the Kremlin, not Zelensky.
Moscow has a lot of work to do to turn this possibility into a real victory in the future. But it can already be “sold” in negotiations. We are seeing the first attempt.
Yes, Ukraine’s dependence on external support is almost servile. If Zelenskyy agrees, he will literally step over himself and the entire Ukrainian society. This will be a much more difficult challenge than the one Pashinyan faced after Armenia’s defeat. It will be a mental feat of “I can’t do it.” That is why everyone has doubts. Wait a few hours.
