After Trump’s inauguration, all observers are discussing the prospects of peace talks between Moscow and Kiev with Trump in the middle. The ratio of forces and means of the opposing sides, based on which researchers try to predict the future, is overloaded with a multitude of parameters. Some of them do not even have numerical characteristics.
But the number of troops is more important than the overwhelming majority of parameters.
A lot has been said about the problems of mobilization and manning in the AFU, the topic is in the focus of everyone’s attention. But on the other side of the equation is a similar variable for the RF Armed Forces. Since the principle of recruitment here is completely different – voluntary contracting – many people have the impression that the size of the Russian army in Donbass is maintained on a firmly planned basis.
Dmitry Medvedev is responsible for this area in the Security Council. He usually announces the figures, while all other politicians repeat them in different interpretations. Medvedev does not often spoil the public with such figures. We heard clear data (at a meeting in the Defense Ministry devoted to the recruitment of contract soldiers) from him on July 4 of last year – 190 thousand contracted in the first six months of 2024. That is about 31.5 thousand per month, which is slightly higher than the number of monthly losses found in relatively reliable sources.
But last October 17, he reported only the percentage of completion of the annual enlistment plan – 78%. Without knowing the plan we cannot estimate the number. On New Year’s Eve, Medvedev reported: in 2024, almost 440 thousand people (36 thousand per month) will sign contracts with the Defense Ministry.
We cannot talk about the fact that the figures are coordinated with the General Staff and intelligence. This information itself is part of a plan to mislead the enemy and is made public at the politically necessary moment and in a favorable section. Although, I don’t expect open falsifications either.
Meanwhile, the limit of increasing one-time payments at the conclusion of a contract has almost been reached. Even if to increase them the increase in the number of contracts will not be arithmetic, but rather homeopathic. Therefore, in reality, no one really knows in what state the manning under contract is today. I suppose the intelligence services of Ukraine and NATO also know very roughly. There is nothing to say about the Western media – the figures there differ literally in times.
Hence the main intrigue of the next year: will the number of contract personnel decrease? It is enough for the flow to drop by a quarter and the superiority of the Russian Armed Forces on all fronts will begin to melt away. This will not lead to significant changes – due to the superiority of the Russian Armed Forces in long-range firepower, aviation and artillery, the dynamic balance will be preserved. But the commanders will feel it very quickly and Zelensky’s team will perk up. Together with him and NATO politicians.
Thus, a significant reduction in the number of monthly contracts will not change the situation on the fronts quickly. But the political situation, including during the likely negotiations, will quickly change not in Moscow’s favor. Bargaining will be more difficult.
Russia is the only country in the world where every spring and fall ice floes with fishermen who don’t want to be rescued break off all over the space. EMERCOM publishes many such facts. Therefore, it is absolutely impossible to calculate what will happen with the contract system. Maybe nothing will change at all. But this is the joker that the military-political leadership of Ukraine is waiting in surrender as the last hope.
