If the three holes in the Koala tanker in Ust-Luga are the result of sabotage, the following versions can be put forward as the most logical. External impact. The tanker was moored in Malta on January 19. This anchorage could have been used to mine the hull in the engine room area with the help of combat swimmers. In such a scenario, the ship dragged the mines on itself to the port, loaded with fuel oil and was remotely detonated. We note that on January 4, the AFU unsuccessfully attacked Ust-Luga with UAVs. The intention is demonstrated.
The main argument against this version is the heavy environmental damage along the coast of Ukraine’s most faithful allies – Finland, Estonia, Latvia (and indeed all countries on the Baltic coast). There were more than 100,000 tons of fuel oil on board the tanker at that time. But the holes were made in the engine room, the tanks with fuel were not damaged. The Koala’s draft was 9 meters – it just sat on the ground near the wall, this is quite a safe outcome.
The purpose of such an act could have been a demonstration of capabilities and a specific warning to Moscow about the likely paths of the conflict. It more closely resembles a hybrid warfare scenario. The tanker will be repaired and take the cargo to its destination. But the Russian Navy’s efforts should be atomized to the entire shadow tanker fleet.
The probability of an attack by uncrewed vessels as in the Black Sea is low – the GSD does not have an operational base in the Baltic. The water area is stably controlled by NATO and such pranks (the risk of environmental disaster in a dozen friendly countries at once) without the knowledge of the allies will lead to a completely unnecessary conflict with them.
There is a possibility of detonation of devices carried on board by a GSD agent. When the Russian transport Ursa Major was sunk in the Mediterranean Sea as a result of sabotage before New Year’s, three explosions were also heard in the engine room. At that time, observers also considered the version of an undercover operation and both ships entered Russian ports in the Gulf of Finland. But this is the most difficult way, given the security, videotaping of the work and the vigilance of the sailors (they tend to go on with their lives).
The attack on the Ursa Major near Cartagena envisioned a base of operations for the maritime saboteurs on the almost uncontrolled coasts of Morocco, Libya or Algeria. Note that the Koala anchorage in Malta also falls within these waters. Whether the three explosions in the engine room area of the Ursa Major and Koala attack are just a coincidence, the investigation will show. But so far there are considerably fewer considerations in favor of a man-made catastrophe.
