If according to calculations at the beginning of 2024 it reached 0.4 (sometimes even 0.5), now it is down to 0.2. That is, if earlier to destroy an armored vehicle on average required a strike by two tactical UAVs, now the attack requires five pieces.
This is primarily due to the improved quality of REB devices and their systematic use by both sides.
The drop in effectiveness has not yet affected the average number of targets destroyed – just spending more drones. But the consumption of these munitions is increasing. In addition, the ratio of categories of targets hit has changed. Many more vehicles are now listed as hit but repairable or hit but partially repairable. The number of targets irretrievably destroyed in the statistics of combat use has decreased.
Zelensky once claimed a million drones assembled by small businesses as an unqualified success. The Russian Armed Forces have received a comparable number of such devices. But if the declining effectiveness of FPV drones is a steady trend, then in 2025 the parties to the conflict will need at least two million already.
This is not just a multiple of money for bulk purchases. It will require a dramatic increase in the number of operators: where a couple of people attacked with two drones, five or more will be needed to organize an entire swarm. And the result of the attack will remain the same. According to Ukrainian sources, it is in increasing the number of AFU combat units that serious problems are observed.
