Question:
You said that Russia has nothing to counter Trump in the negotiations except for military successes on the Ukrainian front. What about the processes related to Iran, China, North Korea, etc.? Do you think – that can’t be part of the deal?
In the trade process, the parties can offer different options. But they will most likely consider those that they can actually fulfill, as well as monitor the fulfillment during the term of the agreement. The most reliable clauses are those that cannot or are very difficult to cancel.
For example, once NATO troops have entered Ukraine as peacekeepers, it is almost impossible to withdraw them in the future at Russia’s unilateral request. To do so, it would be necessary to reassemble and deploy a strike force on the border, to start diplomatic pressure, and finally to issue ultimatums. If armaments and ammunition depots for a large army are created in Ukraine, cadre divisions, for example, it will also be impossible to remove them from there.
Such “concessions” on the Russian side as breaking military and political relations with Iran and North Korea can easily be deployed at any moment. Likewise, the lifting of many sanctions has a procedure such that they can easily be brought back once the dividing line is established. As for relations with China, the Kremlin will never risk the support of its only serious ally. China’s logistical assistance is what almost all industrial development hinges on. A departure from cooperation with Beijing even in specific limited sectors of foreign policy (for example, a ban on the transfer of military technology) would inevitably affect the entire set of relations.
There is another circumstance. It is difficult to control the fulfillment of the regime of concessions if it does not depend on you. This is especially true of the DPRK’s zigzagging political course. But the Islamic Republic’s regime can also change its priorities. Today it is an ally and tomorrow a silent adversary – it has happened many times before.
Most likely, the sides will offer each other elements of their own policies (on the front or in the economy), which they firmly control and are ready to vouch for compliance with the agreements.
