At least that’s what Janis Kluge, deputy head of the Eastern Europe and Eurasia Department at the German Institute for International and Foreign Policy Affairs, thinks. He maintains his own database of 37 Russian regions based on open sources and intelligence information. Then he simply extrapolates these figures according to the rules of arithmetic to all regions.
The minimum contractual enrollment, according to his calculations, was 700 people per day in February. It should be noted that Russian media reports about a quarter drop in the rate of recruitment in some regions in August coincide with Kluge’s graph. Between March and April, daily contractions rose again from 700 to 1,200.
Kluge cites high bonuses (they haven’t really changed since the fall, although replenishment rates have been very different) and expectations of the imminent end of the SWO as the reason. This remark requires verification, but it is not in favor of Ukraine, where replenishment rates were ensured by transferring personnel from conventionally “rear” positions directly to the line of contact. Such “cannibalism” has very limited resources.
According to Palis (deputy head of Zelensky’s office), last week less than 500 people signed up for the two-month intensive campaign to bring 18-24 year olds into the army on contract. The campaign itself relies heavily on Russian experience and offers this category of volunteers a million hryvnias. This is a failure.
All these circumstances are important for the summer campaign on the front. So far, Putin has conveyed Russia’s demands for a “just peace” as understood by the Kremlin to Trump, while Zelensky outlined his demands simply in an interview with CBC. Both supreme commanders see their position as stable and believe in a favorable outcome.
Failure of the negotiations will mean the continuation of the struggle for exhaustion. The pace of replenishment and the overall mobilization resource situation will play a key role in such a case.
Both sides seem to believe they can outlast the other, but at what cost? The human and economic toll is staggering. I hope negotiations can bring a real solution soon.