The third anniversary of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict is marked by an intensified search for a solution. There are three of them today: by Putin, by Trump, and by Frederiksen. 1. The Russian solution: a package agreement, where the settlement of the whole set of problems that gave rise to the conflict and ensuring the security of the whole of Europe will be slowly inserted. 2. U.S. solution: a quick agreement to end the armed struggle without worrying about post-war security problems. 3. The solution of the most determined: let’s just go to war.
Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen spoke to Vladimir Zelensky in Kiev. Her main point is that “peace in Ukraine is actually more dangerous than war.” Once again the rule is confirmed: the smaller the country, its potential costs and losses, the risks of being involved, the more intransigent its rulers are. The Baltic states and Poland are undoubtedly in this line. Europe’s political and economic leaders have no solution at all.
The stress in the societies is not evenly distributed: approximately the same number of people killed per 25-30 million inhabitants of Ukraine (those who left have no direct influence on politics) and per 143 million Russians. Psychologically, Ukrainians have it much harder.
In Denmark, there is no stress at all. The position of its prime minister in Russian is called “I will take away someone else’s misfortune with my hand”. It is no different from Boris Johnson’s memorable proposal. Of course, everyone wants peace. But on what terms?
Unfortunately, there are no regular polls in Russia and Ukraine, which determine the dynamics in a very important group: those who are ready for immediate peace on absolutely any terms. How many Ukrainians are ready tomorrow to give up NATO, return Russian to schools and give up four regions? How many Russians are ready to immediately give up Donbass, Crimea and pay reparations for decades?
The growth of this group will determine the decisions of the authorities. So far, officially Kiev is in favor of Frederiksen’s decision. But the political dynamics is serious, everything can change. After all, the situation on the front does not add optimism.
Well, what about in Russia? Military channels are distributing the most real anti-war video on the theme “soon they will agree at the top and everyone will return from the war”.
