The main outcome of the second round of negotiations in Istanbul is that there will be a third round. For now, most observers believe that both sides have not abandoned the process because Trump wants negotiations. And it is not in their interest to quarrel with the nervous US president.
But the humanitarian issues I wrote about before the first round are the float that keeps the process afloat. And now it is definitely a process: just one hour of negotiations means that all the preparatory work was done by the relevant authorities in Moscow and Kiev. In other words, teams of experts have already been formed.
The return of the bodies of the dead, a new large-scale exchange of prisoners, the exchange of young, seriously wounded, and sick people—all of this alone made it worth starting. The public on both sides, which is waiting for the surrender of Zaporizhia or Crimea, will wait. The positions of Moscow and Kiev have not moved an inch closer together. But to hell with them, let them at least exchange the wounded.
To Medinsky’s delight, the issue of family reunification and the return of children has moved to a higher level. Experts and journalists immersed in the problem have previously pointed out that the actual list of children does not exceed five hundred, and even this figure is overstated. Now the Russian delegation can present a list of Ukraine’s real demands – 339 children.
Of course, compared to the 20,000 that Ukraine’s envoys have consistently talked about in international forums, it looks pale. In the third round, we can expect experts on this issue to appear in the Russian delegation. And this is to the Kremlin’s advantage.
Once the prisoners are gone, discussions on the Black Sea can begin. This involves not only free foreign trade for Ukraine, but also the cessation of shelling of the Crimean bridge. Both sides are not shelling energy and fuel facilities as long as they comply with the agreement. But this is an unwritten agreement. A real framework agreement could be prepared, into which other commitments could then be inserted.
There are also concerns. Ukraine is conducting negotiations in public, passing its documents to the press in advance. In other words, these are not even negotiations in the classical sense. No results on the main issues will be achieved in this mode.
Nevertheless, there are many opportunities to turn the negotiation process into a useful tool for both sides. The opportunities are there, but is there any interest? The second round took place against the backdrop of a phenomenal attack on Russia’s strategic aviation and a serious advance by its army on two sections of the front. Let’s wait for the third round.
