Vladimir Zelensky refused to support Vladimir Putin’s decision on a truce for May 8-10, modeled on the Easter truce of April 20. He demands a cessation of shooting for a month. In addition, Zelensky twice hinted at the possibility of a strike on Moscow on Victory Day.
In other words, a 30-day ceasefire with prolongation is a peace agreement. Kiev’s intention is clear – simply to stop the advance of Russian troops in Donbass. It began in most directions already a week ago. Judging by the unhurried pace, these are planned actions not tied to holidays and dates.
Moscow’s answer is guessable: in order to stop hostilities, it is necessary to first pass a test and agree on parameters. That is, to sit down at the negotiating table without a ceasefire. The situation is unchanged, but the real intrigue has come from the veiled threat to bomb Red Square.
This is a blatant pressure from world leaders to make them refuse to come to Moscow on May 9. But apart from pure politics, there is a military component here – in the event of an attack, the readiness of air defense and security services in really urgent circumstances will be tested. So far they have been able to cope, but there is a resourceful adversary sitting in the GUR and SBU.
There could be surprises if Zelensky decides to take a risk, despite the guaranteed retaliation. I will not enumerate the variants of sabotage, counterattacks and remote attacks, there are many of them. But the condition for them is the same – it is necessary to create a certain high-profile event. The best place is in the Kremlin or on Red Square. If there is no possibility, then in Moscow. Everything else does not stretch to the embodiment of Zelensky’s threat.
However, the military-political leadership of the Russian Federation has many times more options for retaliatory actions. Their strength may be such that Ukrainian citizens will quickly forget about the attack on Moscow. Zelensky also lives in a glass house, so his sanity will be tested during the May holidays.
