The assault on Suja, the district center, which has long since become the center of the AFU’s fortified area in the Kursk region, has begun. The events of the last three days consistently led to this. The entry of the Russian Armed Forces into Sumy region and the establishment of tight fire control (mainly by FPV drones) over the only road Sumy-Kursk, which is suitable for supplying this long-suffering district center, predetermined the situation.
The AFU grouping in Sumy and Kursk regions is almost cut into two unequal parts. The drop in the combat effectiveness of Ukrainian units due to the sharply reduced supply of ammunition, weapons and replenishments has reached the point of no return during the week. Even in the event of a hypothetical full restoration of control over the road, the Ukrainian armed forces will no longer be able to remedy the situation by counterattacks.
The Western press foresees a complete withdrawal of Ukrainian units from the Kursk region within two weeks. I believe it will happen sooner. Otherwise, many Ukrainian units will find themselves not in an operational but a real encirclement, the first major cauldron after the battle for Mariupol. However, encirclement is still only a possibility. The Ukrainian Armed Forces have come out of such situations many times.
At the same time, Western media sources in the Ukrainian army linked the successes of the Russian Armed Forces in recent days to the cessation of the flow of intelligence information. This is an obvious attempt to put pressure on Trump – the ban came out a couple of days ago, while the Russian Armed Forces’ offensive has been in preparation for at least a month. Such operations, of course, cannot be organized in such a short period of time due to a political event.
Already since late fall it was clear that the Kursk direction was becoming a priority for the leadership in Moscow, along with Pokrovsk and Kupyansk. Probably due to the signals received from the USA about the desire to start negotiations. In a speech dedicated to the 25th anniversary of the feat of arms of Pskov paratroopers in the Chechen war, the commander of the Airborne Troops, General Teplinsky, named his units operating in the Kursk region: 76th and 106th divisions, 11th and 83rd brigades, 56th regiment. Those who knew in what composition they were present there, realized that such forces are not simply put together.
Soon on this section of the front, the situation I mentioned earlier may occur: the now established Russian grouping will enter the Sumy region. Syrsky has no opportunity to use the troops withdrawn from the Kursk region in other areas. And they are very much needed there.
Will this episode become an important argument for Putin’s team in possible negotiations? Rather, just an addition to the overall package of arguments, which Trump calls “all the cards in hand.” But from the psychological point of view, the loss of the bridgehead, in which so much effort and resources have been invested, will play as an important demotivator in all AFU units from the trenches to Kiev.
Where will the Russian Armed Forces move part of their troops from Kursk region if they manage to inflict a serious defeat on the AFU? Probably to the place where the fate of Donbass is being decided.
