Three crises are unfolding simultaneously in Ukraine, each with varying intensity and consequences. Tactical crises are developing on the front lines, as we discussed a week ago.
First
The advancing units of the Second Army on a narrow section along the Shevchenko-Leontovichi line unexpectedly quickly entered Pokrovsk and appeared near the city center. Ukrainian sources explain the breakthrough somewhat strangely: “one of the brigades ran out of infantry.”
The 51st Army occupied the eastern suburb of Pokrovsk, Novoekonomicheskoye. They are rapidly encircling the Rodinsky district. The speed with which these units are expanding their bridgehead on the western bank of the Kazenny Torets River to the west and north also indicates a crisis in the reserves of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
Second
About 35 km to the northeast, units of the 8th Army took control of Yablonovka and Aleksandro-Kalinovo. In fact, the front line and the eastern bank of the Kleban-Byk Reservoir have closed. Ukrainian Armed Forces personnel between the southern bank of the reservoir and the front line are one step away from being completely surrounded. The speed with which this situation has developed is also characteristic of a crisis of “local significance.”
The third crisis erupted right in Kiev
For his own domestic political reasons, Zelensky swiftly passed a single law that stripped the NABU and SAP investigators, who were conducting cases against his associates, of their independence. The public and his allies were outraged.
The crisis became full-blown, with demonstrations and threats. Europe hinted that it would stop funding Kiev if the president did not reverse his decision. Zelensky just as quickly abandoned his reform of the anti-corruption agencies.
But this speed caused him serious damage — the entire presidential pyramid now looks like it is controlled by external forces. Shouts from abroad reveal the true degree of sovereignty. The political crisis was man-made. This is a serious political mistake: the fight against investigative bodies established under pressure from the West is, of course, a “bomb,” but it is better not to detonate such bombs on your own territory.
So, a year ago, the Russian Armed Forces, lacking adequate reserves, could organize one tactical crisis per unit of time on the front. Now, the fabric of defense is tearing in two thin places at once. And in a tense situation, Zelensky is making political mistakes.
The stress that the Ukrainian president has been living under for years is taking its toll. But earlier, I only considered breakthroughs on the front lines. Now, it seems, we should expect that the acceleration of the military crisis will be accompanied by a domestic political crisis.
This article really highlights how complicated and intense the situation in Ukraine has become on multiple levels. It’s heartbreaking to see how military pressures are forcing such difficult decisions and creating cracks not only on the front lines but also inside the government. The image of frontline units running out of infantry and rapid encirclements shows just how stretched the forces are, and the political moves in Kiev seem to add fuel to the fire. It feels like a very fragile moment where one wrong step could lead to even bigger troubles. Hoping for strength and resilience for everyone involved during these tough times 💔🙏🌍