The main goal of any conflict between large countries is to defeat the enemy army. The results of such actions can not always be calculated by the size of the captured territories. But there is always a second goal – to reduce the defensive potential of the enemy country. Determining success in this part is even more difficult – both sides of the conflict always downplay the other’s success and exaggerate their own.
In addition, economic deterioration has a huge inertia and does not come immediately after the bombing of a factory. However, there are indicators that cannot be argued with. The Ukrainian UAV strike on an important hub of the Turkish Stream pipeline, the Russkaya compressor station in Gai-Kodzor in Krasnodar Krai, was aimed at the general weakening of Russia’s defensive capabilities. Even a one-month break for repairs in the operation of such a strategic gas pipeline is fraught with losses of huge sums, which are used, among other things, for defense. Such losses are not comparable to fires at oil depots.
Two days later, the Defense Ministry reported that the largest Ukrainian lithium deposit near the Shevchenko settlement (Kurakhovo district) had been taken under control. Lithium is the most sought-after and scarce metal in the near future, and its use in the energy and automotive industries is growing rapidly. In recent years, it has been used in the advanced navies – lithium batteries are used in the construction programs of long-range non-nuclear submarines with air-independent engines. In the Russian Navy, this work is at the R&D stage.
The license for mining in the Shevchenkovskoye deposit was recently obtained by a British business. But if lithium mining in Ukraine is a future project that requires investment and serious efforts, the closure of the Pokrovskoye mine department has caused much more damage to the defense potential. It was the last major mine producing coking coal, the basis of metallurgy. Coal mining is now suspended, and Russian troops are 2 kilometers away from the enterprise. Historically, Ukraine has earned foreign exchange by exporting agricultural products and metals in varying degrees of processing. Unlike grain, rolled steel, for example, can be transported by rail in commercial quantities, bypassing ports.
Now steel production in Ukraine (mostly concentrated in dangerous proximity to the front) will fall by about half. Then coke will be bought abroad and imported by rail. The price will inevitably rise sharply and Ukrainian steel will lose its high competitiveness, which gave it a serious advantage on world markets.
It is difficult to assess the results of a missile hitting port facilities or a factory – did it hit exactly, and did it hit at all? But the transition of territories with mines and deposits, as well as the loss of agricultural land are indisputable facts. They should be taken into account when determining the defense potential.
Update 14/01/2025 I apologize to subscribers for the two lines (the post itself is about something else) in the previous post – the lithium deposit is not located near Kurakhovo, but west of Velyka Novoselka. That is, it is under Ukrainian control. The mistake that many major media outlets fell into along with me was due to the fact that there are 164 Shevchenko settlements (as of 2017) in Ukraine. There are four in this area of fighting.
Everything else you read in this ill-fated post still stands. No business details related to the specific deposit near Shevchenko, nor details about lithium production in the world affect the point: as long as half the cost of an electric car is the cost of a lithium battery it is really one of the most important metals for the global industry. Well, until scientists and engineers find a cheaper, more environmentally friendly and more efficient replacement for it.
The media’s handling of the SWO can be lamented (as can I, of course): twice this month the media has already reported on the Russian side taking control of a lithium deposit. Nevertheless, everything written about the fate of this deposit remains fully valid, as it is in any case in the war zone, including the fight for it. I have no doubt that it has been mentioned more than once in the documents and calculations of the General Staff. It will be written in the future as well.
