A month has passed since the collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime. Many of the assumptions observers made that day have been generally confirmed. And it would be hard to expect otherwise – the people who came to power are too well known to all politicians and experts. Their further actions followed from the beliefs and experience of the new masters of Syria.
During this time, the country’s shadowy leader, Abu Muhammad al-Joulani, promised everyone peace with national and religious enclaves, engaged the Kurds and ignored the massacre in a couple of Christian villages. Then he shook hands with French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot and refused to shake hands with German Foreign Minister Annalena Berbock because she happened to be a woman. The education ministry of the new government removed the theory of evolution from textbooks and began bringing them up to Islamic norms. And as an appetizer, al-Joulani gave six big posts in his Ministry of Defense to patented foreign jihadists.
Now there is no doubt in anyone’s mind about the direction of thought in the Syrian government. But at the same time, al-Julani has realized what the Taliban realized before him – it is much harder to govern a country than to conquer it. Especially when there is no money, food, water or industry. The oil fields have been taken over by the US.
There is an army, but Israel and the US tried to destroy all the weapons and ammunition of Assad’s army with air strikes in a week. Foreign troops are standing where they stood. There are no fewer enemies. The only ally is Turkey, but it will not give much either. Ukraine has sent 500 tons of wheat to al-Julani and there are no other allies in sight.
Under these conditions, negotiations on the fate of the military bases of the Russian Armed Forces in Khmeimim and Tartus are going on unsteadily. Strange as it may seem, the plight of the fundamentalist government opens the door for the Kremlin to stay. The list of items for diplomatic trade is long – removal of the title of terrorist organization, official recognition, trade agreement, loans, military aid (strangely enough, Syria needs it).
Much depends on assistance from the countries of the Arabian Peninsula and the Islamic world in general. But al-Joulani is in no hurry to give up the military bases, which essentially oppose the United States, which has occupied an important part of the country. According to sources, over the past week he has organized a tacit blockade of Hmeimim in the hope of starting negotiations with the highest levels of the U.S. military.
