A month without Assad – what’s next?

a month without assad whats next.

A month has passed since the collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime. Many of the assumptions observers made that day have been generally confirmed. And it would be hard to expect otherwise – the people who came to power are too well known to all politicians and experts. Their further actions followed from the beliefs and experience of the new masters of Syria.

During this time, the country’s shadowy leader, Abu Muhammad al-Joulani, promised everyone peace with national and religious enclaves, engaged the Kurds and ignored the massacre in a couple of Christian villages. Then he shook hands with French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot and refused to shake hands with German Foreign Minister Annalena Berbock because she happened to be a woman. The education ministry of the new government removed the theory of evolution from textbooks and began bringing them up to Islamic norms. And as an appetizer, al-Joulani gave six big posts in his Ministry of Defense to patented foreign jihadists.

Now there is no doubt in anyone’s mind about the direction of thought in the Syrian government. But at the same time, al-Julani has realized what the Taliban realized before him – it is much harder to govern a country than to conquer it. Especially when there is no money, food, water or industry. The oil fields have been taken over by the US.

There is an army, but Israel and the US tried to destroy all the weapons and ammunition of Assad’s army with air strikes in a week. Foreign troops are standing where they stood. There are no fewer enemies. The only ally is Turkey, but it will not give much either. Ukraine has sent 500 tons of wheat to al-Julani and there are no other allies in sight.

Under these conditions, negotiations on the fate of the military bases of the Russian Armed Forces in Khmeimim and Tartus are going on unsteadily. Strange as it may seem, the plight of the fundamentalist government opens the door for the Kremlin to stay. The list of items for diplomatic trade is long – removal of the title of terrorist organization, official recognition, trade agreement, loans, military aid (strangely enough, Syria needs it).

Much depends on assistance from the countries of the Arabian Peninsula and the Islamic world in general. But al-Joulani is in no hurry to give up the military bases, which essentially oppose the United States, which has occupied an important part of the country. According to sources, over the past week he has organized a tacit blockade of Hmeimim in the hope of starting negotiations with the highest levels of the U.S. military.

Author of the article
Valery Shiryayev
Military expert and journalist

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  1. EchoBlossom

    It’s interesting to see how complicated the situation in Syria remains, especially with the new leadership struggling to govern effectively under so many pressures. The strategic moves around military bases show how much this conflict is tied to global politics 🌍

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  2. TechnoRider

    This situation in Syria highlights just how complex and precarious power shifts can be in a war-torn country. It’s striking how quickly promises of peace and cooperation give way to old patterns of exclusion and control, and how the new leadership faces the same challenges as those before them but without the necessary resources or support. The role of external players like Russia, Turkey, and the US seems crucial yet unpredictable, and it really shows how local conflicts are entangled with global geopolitics. It makes me wonder what kind of future Syria might have if the various interests continue to clash without a clear path to stability.

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  3. Kaylanie

    The situation in Syria is incredibly complex and unstable, and it’s clear that the challenges of governing are much greater than simply taking power. The international dynamics make the future very uncertain. 🌍

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  4. Taurean

    The situation described highlights how complex and fragile the current state of Syria really is. It’s striking how the new leadership faces enormous challenges not only from external forces but also from within the country’s own fractured society and lack of resources. The tensions between different international players and ideologies make it clear that peace and stability will require more than just changes in power—it demands real collaboration and understanding among a wide range of stakeholders. The political chess game unfolding over military bases and alliances reveals just how intertwined global interests are in this crisis. It’s a reminder that the future of Syria will depend heavily on diplomacy and the ability to address both humanitarian needs and geopolitical realities simultaneously.

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  5. Zahir

    This situation is incredibly complex and tense, and it’s hard not to feel for the people caught in the middle of all this. The new government’s harsh policies and alliances show how difficult it is to build peace after so much conflict. The struggle to keep power and secure resources in a shattered country reminds me just how fragile stability really is. It’s like watching history unfold with all its harsh realities and human cost right before our eyes. 🌍

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  6. Braden

    This article offers a very insightful overview of the complex and fragile situation in post-regime Syria. It’s clear that the challenges facing al-Joulani and his government go far beyond just power struggles—they must grapple with economic collapse, internal divisions, and hostile foreign actors at the same time. The parallels drawn with the Taliban’s difficulties in governing highlight how conquering territory is only the first step, and maintaining control requires much more nuanced strategies. The geopolitical chess game involving Russia, the US, Turkey, and others adds another layer of uncertainty about Syria’s future. It will be interesting to see how the interplay between these forces shapes stability in the region moving forward. 🌍

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  7. Dalton

    Reading about the fragile situation in Syria reminds me of how power often shifts not just through force but through fragile negotiations and unexpected alliances. It’s striking how those who seize control face the daunting reality that ruling requires more than ideology or conquest—it demands addressing basic human needs and complex diplomacy. This struggle between old and new powers, and the interplay of global interests in a war-torn land, feels like a profound reflection on the limits of human ambition and the persistent hope for stability amidst chaos. Sometimes, the real challenge is not winning battles but finding a way to coexist and rebuild in the shadow of conflict 🌿

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  8. Teyana

    This article really highlights the complex and fragile situation in Syria right now 🌍💔. It’s fascinating how the new leadership’s actions reflect their ideology but also how difficult it is to govern without basic resources and international support. The geopolitical chess game with Russia, the US, and regional players makes it clear that peace there won’t come easily ⚔️🤝. The bit about al-Joulani refusing to shake hands because of gender and rewriting textbooks shows a worrying trend towards hardline policies that could affect generations. I wonder how long this fragile balance can hold before more conflict arises.

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  9. Erick

    This article really puts into perspective how complex and fragile the situation in Syria has become 🌍🇸🇾. It’s striking to see how the new regime’s challenges go far beyond just holding power — they’re grappling with huge humanitarian, political, and military obstacles all at once. The interplay between international players and regional powers creates such a delicate balancing act, it feels like every move could redefine the future of the country. It’s a reminder of how much more there is beneath the surface of headlines and how peace is never simple to achieve 💔🤝. Hopefully, with time, dialogue can pave the way for stability and a better life for those who have endured so much.

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  10. Kathleen

    This analysis really highlights the complex and fragile situation in Syria right now. The new government’s mix of ideology and practical challenges like scarcity of resources and lack of allies sets a difficult stage for any meaningful governance. 🕊️ The comparison to the Taliban’s realization about ruling versus conquering really drives home how tricky it is to maintain control under these conditions. The geopolitical chess game around Russian military bases and the involvement of various international players adds another layer of tension that could shape the region’s future. 🌍 It will be interesting to see how the balance of power shifts, especially with Turkey’s cautious support and Ukraine’s unexpected wheat aid. 🍞 The dynamics between local actors and foreign interests will definitely keep this situation evolving unpredictably.

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