Trump has banned providing Ukraine with intelligence information of all types within the operational depth of the Russian Armed Forces (50 kilometers or more) regardless of the state border. At the same time, the US has suspended arms deliveries. According to White House National Security Advisor Mike Waltz, the ban is in effect until a date is set for peace talks with Russia.
In Ukraine, in this difficult situation, there are enough cheerful statements that the AFU will quietly hold out in the current active defense mode until the end of summer, or even longer, using the stocks of ammunition and weapons provided by the Biden administration. Ukraine’s budget is also formed and secured for the year ahead.
But U.S. weapons, without adequate intelligence support, often fail to operate with the stated accuracy and effectiveness. Specifying targets in real time for Himars or ATACMS strikes, guiding F-16 pilots, transmitting data on Russian aircraft flights and cruise or ballistic missile launches to the air defense system – all this requires intelligence. This was the original intention when precision weapons were still being developed by designers.
On the front line, drones provide better quality intelligence than any satellite. But precision operational weapons lost half their effectiveness the minute Trump imposed the ban. Finding radio emissions of the Russian Armed Forces headquarters, intercepting and analyzing key conversations, and determining the movement of important targets in depth is very difficult for the AFU.
Ukraine has no AWACS airplanes. There are no modern means of radio-technical reconnaissance. The first consequence of the ban is disorientation of the air defense system. And observers should see this in the nearest massive raid of the RF Armed Forces’ long-range fire attack means.
But perhaps the strangest part of the news is the conditions for lifting the ban on military aid – “until a date is set for peace talks.” Suppose Zelensky complies with all of Trump’s demands, who has consistently played the role of master of the situation. But as soon as he balks again or misbehaves, will he be “turned off the gas” again?
In such a scenario, access to the Pentagon’s most important intelligence information turns into a kind of electric switch for the Ukrainian president. Just when you twitch, you get an electric shock, and then the supply of key information to the troops is resumed. At least, it looks like that now. Let’s see what further events will show.
