On January 5, with the onset of daylight, with a comfortable -6℃ ground freeze for armored vehicles, the AFU launched an offensive against the RF Armed Forces positions in the tactical zone at Bolshoye Soldatskoye through Berdin – the general direction along the road from the district center of Suja to Kursk. A secondary strike is being carried out to the northwest in the direction of Leonidovo.
In the first two attacks involved the forces of two battalions. As in the offensive in early August, the AFU is using electronic warfare equipment of such density that the Russian military relies only on fiber-optic-controlled drones for defense. A lot of equipment has been assembled in a narrow area.
But now, the fortifications deep inside the Russian defenses aren’t just rebuilt – they’re filled with personnel. Not only operational, but also tactical surprise is not on Syrsky’s side. Lapin’s troops began their defense “in a planned manner,” so to speak.
It is important to remember that the summer offensive of the AFU in this very place began with exactly the same tactical actions. The true scope of Syrsky’s plan became clear not immediately. We shall see how events will unfold on Christmas Day.
In August, the offensive was preceded by numerous complaints from the command and Zelensky himself about the lack of resources for the offensive. We saw the same information picture at the end of December. The coming days will show whether it was part of the operational encryption of the near offensive.
As early as the morning of January 5, there were reports of an offensive by the AFU with the forces of six brigades and the occupation of the village of Berdin. Several military “objectivist” blogs with an unclear status until that day immediately picked up this information. From them, reports about the capture of Berdin by the Ukrainian military moved to the Z-blogosphere.
Since the AFU command has burned its hitherto hidden media resources, the information about the alleged six brigades on the offensive is an important part of the plot. In August, Syrsky acted in the opposite way: the offensive was going on in a complete information vacuum. Why is it so important for the Ukrainian military-political leadership to convince the world (Andriy Yermak, the head of Zelensky’s office, is involved in these games right from this morning) that the AFU offensive with decisive goals has begun in the Kursk region?
If the commander’s style has not changed, the main blow will probably be struck elsewhere. In November-December, specialized Russian media speculated about the location of the “last hope” strike. The AFU was expected in Kharkiv Oblast and Zaporizhzhya Oblast.
From a strategic point of view, the AFU’s Christmas offensive in the Kursk region is a path to nowhere. But as an offensive “with decisive political goals” it may well succeed. In the coming days, Trump’s special envoy Keith Kellogg will arrive in Kiev.
The political process that will determine Ukraine’s fate is beginning. At the upcoming allied talks, it is not the defeat of Russian Armed Forces formations that will be the measure of success, but the number of settlements that have come under the control of the AFU and the number of areas where even a modest tactical success will be synonymous with victory.
Therefore, the new AFU operation is not “Syrsky vs. Lapin.” Given that its development and countermeasures of the AFU can be followed in many areas of the front, it is already a duel “Syrsky vs. Gerasimov”. And so far the score on points (taking into account the events of 2022) is not final. Everything will be decided in the near future.
