What if a slow advance, akin to the successes of January (the Kursk region took everything), is all that the Russian army is capable of today? We can consider it a proven fact of the past year that both sides have great difficulty in creating even operational reserves, let alone strategic ones.
Then it is worth pondering Kiev’s capabilities. At the end of January, 15 thousand AFU personnel completed training and alignment abroad. They are being organized into so-called heavy mechanized brigades. Given the general lack of artillery in the AFU, a brigade artillery group (self-propelled artillery division, towed artillery division, MLRS and anti-tank divisions) is planned. The tank battalions there are “Soviet” 31 vehicles in 3 companies.
All this economy may well move in a “counter-offensive” with localized targets and strike where the Russian army is standing still. In such a case, no effort should be spent on stopping the enemy’s advance before going on the counteroffensive. We can point to Kupyansk, Kursk and Belgorod regions. The AFU can also move in the area of Gulyaypol, however – there are bad roads there.
But there is a direction in which serious success could become a powerful inspiring example for Kiev and the people of Ukraine. The troops are frozen near Pokrovsk in a precarious balance. A strike to encircle the 90th Armored Division and a strong grouping around it could yield results if all the conditions and prerequisites for such a heavy operation are met.
The defeat of the Pokrov grouping of the Russian Armed Forces could be a triumph. Historically, an operation of this scale was conducted by Syrsky in Kharkov and Kursk regions. Both times this general achieved complete operational surprise. He knows how to deliver surprises, although the AFU grouping here is commanded by Tarnavsky (the Russian Armed Forces’ offensive at Pokrovskoye was halted when he took office).
Unlike last August, Mordvichev will stand in front of Syrsky and Tarnavsky; this is a completely different case. And there has already been an attempt at a counterattack here recently – unsuccessful. There is another circumstance that makes it more difficult for the AFU to encircle the 90th Division.
The Kremlin has set the Russian army a very difficult but achievable goal – to occupy four new regions within its administrative boundaries. The movement is slow but continuous. But the AFU has an unattainable goal, they will not reach the borders of 1991. The hypothetical offensive I have considered is a movement without strategic sense. But other options are worse.
Localized strikes in Kupiansk, Kursk, and Belgorod regions test Russian defenses. Could these maneuvers weaken their operational reserves?
Ukraine’s heavy brigades are preparing for a decisive operation to encircle Russian forces near Pokrovsk. Will this bold move shift the balance on the battlefield?
Could Ukraine’s mechanized brigades deliver a decisive blow to the 90th Armored Division near Pokrovsk? A critical moment in the conflict unfolds.
Despite logistical challenges, Ukraine eyes strategic moves in Gulyaypole. Could this open a new chapter in the counteroffensive?
Oh great, another masterpiece of doom and gloom predicting slow advances and impossible goals 🙄 If the Russian army’s best bet is inching forward like a turtle on sedatives, maybe it’s time to rethink the strategy instead of fantasizing about encirclements that probably won’t happen 🤡 Meanwhile, celebrating the training of 15 thousand AFU troops like it’s some kind of game changer is cute, but we all know real wars aren’t won by press releases 🚀 Also, “unattainable goals” sound like a brilliant morale booster for both sides, right? Honestly, this entire analysis feels like a gloomy soap opera waiting for a plot twist that never comes 😂💥🧐
This analysis really highlights the complexity and scale of the situation, showing how momentum and morale can hinge on just one strategic move. It’s fascinating to see how even slow advances can shape the bigger picture, and how critical timing and surprise remain in modern conflict. The idea that a breakthrough near Pokrovsk could inspire hope and change the course is powerful and reminds me that sometimes perseverance and patience are as important as bold action. 🌟
It’s interesting to see the analysis that both sides struggle to build substantial reserves, which really highlights the grinding nature of this conflict. The idea of localized counter-offensives targeting static positions seems like a practical approach given the current limitations, though the emphasis on terrain and logistics like poor roads shows how much geography still shapes the battlefield. The potential for a breakthrough near Pokrovsk could indeed be a critical turning point if everything aligns perfectly, but the strategic goals on both sides seem increasingly out of reach, making any gains feel temporary at best. The slow but steady advance by the Russian forces shows how determined they are, even without rapid successes, which makes the entire situation feel like a war of attrition more than a traditional campaign. ⚔️🌍
If slow and steady wins the race, this war must be a marathon where everyone forgot their running shoes. The idea of counter-offensives with limited artillery sounds like trying to fight a fire with a water pistol, but hey, at least there’s some movement—even if it’s more like a sluggish limbo. And the Kremlin’s goal of grabbing new territories while the other side chases ghosts of 1991 borders feels like two people playing chess but forgetting the rules. War by snail’s pace—who knew strategy could be so… leisurely? 🐢
If slow and steady is all the Russian army can muster, then calling it a military powerhouse might be a bit generous. Meanwhile, the AFU is busy trying to patch together brigades with leftover Soviet tanks and hope it somehow turns the tide—sounds like a recipe for a cinematic flop rather than a real counteroffensive. The idea that encircling one division could be some grand triumph feels like wishful thinking at best. And seriously, setting goals that are basically impossible? That’s not strategy, it’s just stubbornness with a blindfold on. 🚶♂️💤
The situation described feels like a reflection of the larger human condition, where progress often appears slow and fraught with obstacles, yet perseverance remains essential. The idea that neither side can muster enough reserves to achieve decisive breakthroughs speaks to the limits imposed not just by resources, but by determination and circumstance. It makes me think about how every struggle, whether on a battlefield or in a personal journey, is marked by moments of stillness and uncertainty. The tension between seemingly unattainable goals and the slow accumulation of small gains creates a paradox where hope and realism exist side by side. Perhaps the true challenge lies not in the rapidity of success, but in maintaining resolve when victories seem incremental or even elusive. This slow advance, fragile and uneven, carries its own kind of strength—an endurance that tests character and forces reflection on what victory truly means.
Honestly, if this slow, grinding advance is all the Russian army can manage, it really makes you question the whole idea of their supposed strength. Meanwhile, Kiev’s efforts to form heavy mechanized brigades sound like a desperate scramble to keep up rather than a real game-changer. It almost feels like both sides are stuck in a war of attrition with no clear end in sight. The idea that any of these offensives could lead to something meaningful seems more like wishful thinking than a plausible outcome. At this point, who’s really winning? 🤔
Wow, reading this feels like watching a slow-motion chess game where both players have forgotten the rules 🙄. So, the Russian army is basically inching forward like a tired snail, and Ukraine’s big plan is throwing together some half-baked brigades hoping to surprise someone? Sounds less like a military strategy and more like a group project no one wants to do 🐢💤. And calling the AFU’s goals unattainable just adds that cherry on top of hopelessness 🍒. Honestly, if all these brilliant generals can’t figure out how to move faster than a glacier, maybe they should try marching in flip-flops instead 🤦♀️🔥.