Less than six months have passed since Beijing sharply restricted exports of rare earth elements to NATO countries, primarily the US. Experts are summing up the interim results. A shortage has begun—the American defense industry lacks neodymium, gallium, rhenium, germanium, samarium, and other components for radio electronics and complex weapons.
Due to the overall complexity of modern weapons, there is a shortage of rare metals across the entire range of products. China supplies about 90% of the world’s rare earth elements to the global market. The shortage of neodymium for high-powered magnets in electric motors has called into question the development of drones in the army. Difficulties arise in the production of microelectronics, motors, night vision devices, guidance systems, and military satellites.
The Wall Street Journal writes that prices for key materials for the defense industry have skyrocketed fivefold or more. The industry warns of a possible reduction in production—metal reserves will last for a year. Attempts to quickly find alternative suppliers in Taiwan and Japan have shown that they all ultimately depend on the Chinese anyway.
Of course, the US and other countries have natural reserves of rare earth elements. But creating competitive production facilities is not a quick process. In this context, Trump’s feverish interest in these minerals is seen in a new light.
The conclusion of similar agreements with the government of Ghani in Afghanistan (who was overthrown by the Taliban) and Zelensky, as well as negotiations on this topic in Africa and other poor regions, show that the US was well aware of its vulnerability several years ago. When the Americans decided to impose sanctions and start a trade war with China, they were trying to preempt a likely problem.
It didn’t work. Beijing struck back, the result is obvious, and the prospects are unclear. The US and China are in a state of very strong interdependence. That’s why Comrade Xi sent Mr. Trump packing with his tariffs. As the gangsters used to say in similar situations in the 1990s: we have something to respond with.
