Trump declared with befitting aplomb that he had stopped the war between India and Pakistan. As it turned out, there were two days of very tight negotiations between the combatants, with the participation of Vice President J.D. Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio. And it yielded results – that’s what secret talks at the same time as military action means!
New Delhi and Islamabad decided to hold an immediate ceasefire, find a suitable neutral ground and start talks there on May 12. The Indian Foreign Ministry confirmed the agreement at the defense ministry level, orders to the troops were given. This is first and foremost a victory for common sense in the ruling circles of India and Pakistan. But at the same time it is an undoubted success of the entire American diplomacy.
At the same time, the leaders of Britain, France, Germany and Poland, along with Zelensky, called Trump from Kiev to announce a joint peace plan. Bloomberg called it an ultimatum. After knowing the details, this expression does not seem a great exaggeration. The participants of the meeting in Kiev are literally demanding that Moscow cease all military actions since May 12 in exchange for nothing.
Recalling Boris Johnson’s famous phrase that jeopardized the Istanbul talks in the spring of 2022, the idea behind the European plan is: “Let’s just not go to war!” If Putin does not agree to an immediate cessation of hostilities without any additional conditions and demands, the coalition will increase military aid to Kiev and impose new sanctions. At the same time, the possibility of stationing a military contingent in Ukraine is being considered. Zelensky now rejects even the earlier idea of separating the parties by 30 kilometers.
It is assumed that Trump, who reconciled India and Pakistan, will be at the head of the process. This was announced by British Prime Minister Starmer at a press conference in Kiev. It is understandable: the main sanctions should be imposed by Washington. And American weapons are required – missiles for air defense, aircraft maintenance, ammunition, equipment, investments in the Ukrainian military-industrial complex.
And most importantly, if Moscow balks, it will need American security guarantees. Europe and Ukraine have agreed on this without Trump. Whether Putin is ready to “just not fight,” we’ll see.
Peskov has already noted that the details of the 30-day ceasefire are important. At the top of the list is the cessation of military aid to Ukraine. This is precisely the condition towards the demands for an unconditional ceasefire.
Perhaps it is time to move to secret negotiations in the Ukrainian conflict as well. This is a time-honored classic of diplomacy. The task here is much more difficult: in Kashmir a big battle was simply prevented, while in Ukraine it has been going on for a long time.
This really highlights how complex and delicate international diplomacy is, especially when multiple powerful players are involved. It’s interesting to see how backdoor negotiations can sometimes achieve what public statements can’t. Hopefully, this approach could bring some real progress to the Ukraine conflict too, though it’s clear that the stakes and complications there are on a whole other level. Fingers crossed for more common sense and less confrontation ahead 🤞🌍