On March 18, right in the middle of a phone conversation with Trump, Putin, for the sake of demonstration, banned Gerasimov from striking Ukraine’s energy infrastructure. This was his response to Trump’s attempt to ban long-range strikes altogether. The army responded with decent diligence and elements of provincial comedy: the military shot down its own drones launched at Ukraine before the phone ban.
It is already obvious that the parties are unable to enforce the ban along the front line and in the near rear. A ban in this area is impossible. A voluntary moratorium (since no documents were signed about it) on bombing of energy infrastructure is generally in Russia’s favor. Of course, Ukraine got an opportunity to at least partially restore the networks and prepare for winter. But its only success was the strikes on oil storage facilities and refineries.
The strikes on ammunition depots organized by the headquarters in Wiesbaden are very rare episodes. To damage a military plant you need a very different kind of bombing. A case in point is the attempted AFU raid on the Geraney factory in Alabuga. The AFU has virtually no weapons to hit protected targets in the Russian rear. Buildings that do not burn themselves and are not packed with explosives do not suffer fatally from single hits by light-engine aircraft.
If the moratorium is extended for 30 days, the AFU will be able to move air defense assets from gas storages, wells, and power plants to other facilities, which are almost all located in cities. In essence – all the same air defense assets of the AFU against the same number of air attack assets of the Russian Armed Forces.
The massive strikes on Ukraine, which continue at the same pace, are not comparable to the almost ceased impact of the AFU on Russian Federation industry. The RF Armed Forces have a huge number of targets for strikes, there are no prohibitions on depth. And the impact on the enemy’s defensive potential remains the same. It is profitable for Putin to prolong the moratorium.
Interesting point about Russia benefiting more from the moratorium. It makes sense, given their larger number of targets. Curious to see if the ceasefire will be extended or if fighting will escalate again.
It’s frustrating to read about all the violations. If neither side respects the moratorium, what’s the point? Still, any break from bombing is better than nothing for the people living near these power plants.
Great breakdown of the situation! The part about both sides moving air defense systems was especially interesting. It shows how even a short pause can change military strategies on the ground.
Thanks for the detailed analysis. The lack of a formal agreement seems like a big problem. Without written commitments, it’s too easy for both sides to blame each other and keep fighting.
This article really highlights how fragile these ceasefires are. It’s sad to see that even temporary truces can’t fully protect civilians or critical infrastructure. I hope there will be a more lasting peace soon.
The section about Ukraine repairing its energy grid was eye-opening. I can’t imagine how hard it must be to prepare for winter under these conditions. Wishing strength to everyone affected.
So basically, we’re watching a theatrical standoff where neither side really commits to hitting the real targets, while ordinary people suffer in the background. It’s like a tragic chess game where the pawns are the ones getting crushed 💥 and the kings just keep making empty moves. How long before this so-called restraint just becomes an excuse for endless destruction?