We discussed the possibility of disabling the civilian Starlink space communications system, which is widely used in the AFU. And under the totality of circumstances, I continue to consider this possibility almost unrealistic. But this is the view from the military side. And Trump is first and foremost a politician.
Just the next day, Reuters, citing its sources, reports that negotiators seeking access to critical minerals from Kiev have raised the issue of terminating Ukraine’s access to Starlink. This came after Zelensky refused to sign the initial version of the minerals agreement.
If this is confirmed, there is blackmail of the highest level – there is no more effective “instant action” threat to the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Magura uncrewed boats are controlled via space and sent from Odessa and Nikolaev on operations toward Crimea. A significant part of heavy long-range UAVs that fly to airfields and oil refineries on the Volga River and near the Arctic Circle achieve high accuracy and are able to pass signal jamming areas without affecting the operation solely due to independent encrypted communication through space.
All of this is true. But the loss of control of long-range weapons created by Ukrainian enthusiasts the AFU will survive. The main function of the many thousands of Starlink terminals in the army is control itself. This has always been the envy of the Russian military and another instructive example – civilian technologies are head and shoulders ahead of the military in terms of simplicity, cost and reliability.
It is completely impossible to replace Starlink in control. The degree of penetration of this technology in the troops has reached the point that a separate battery sometimes has its own terminal. But a partial replacement is possible – traditional Army communications combined with civilian cell phone networks. The problem is that no one in the AFU has prepared for such an incredible turn of events, the Starlink shutdown will be a knockout for the entire AFU combat control system. There will be a question of combat stability at the operational level.
Technically, the U.S. can easily disconnect the terminals; Ilon Musk is Trump’s best friend so far. There is no binding treaty between the countries, the Pentagon and Washington owe nothing to anyone. However, cutting off communications to an ally during a war would catastrophically undermine the credibility of military and political cooperation with the US around the world. The issue of maintenance and remote control of sophisticated weapons systems bought from America will come to a head.
So I do not believe in the reality of such a scenario. But the very fact that Starlink appears in the arsenal of extreme blackmail, of which there are no examples in recent history, is indicative. Heavy dependence of this kind inevitably creates a temptation to use it for the current needs of foreign policy.
Well, the practical implications are obvious. Just over a dozen countries launch satellites on their own rockets. Only a few have space-based troop control systems. The rest should think about developing alternatives – it is absolutely realistic and cheaper than Starlink. At least 90% of the world’s armies should refrain from mass introduction of foreign civilian systems into their military infrastructure if they have no control over them.
