There’s a big event in politics. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said: “There are no longer any range restrictions for weapons supplied to Ukraine – not by the British, not by the French, not by us, not by the Americans.” So, the US (it owns the rights to all European cruise missile engines) has authorized full-range strikes by Western weapons against targets in the Russian Federation.
The situation over the past few days has been characterized by a sharp increase in the exchange of strikes deep into Russian and Ukrainian territory. Under the conditions of a tacit agreement not to strike fuel and energy facilities, the AFU has identified an extremely promising target pool for long-range UAVs – airports, or rather large hubs. Ideally, their bombardment could lead to the paralysis of civil aviation in Russia.
The Kremlin’s response so far has been to sharply intensify its bombardment of Ukraine. A record number of drones (355 according to sources) and missiles were launched on Monday. On Sunday night – 298 drones. Peskov called these shellings a “retaliatory strike.” Clearly, there is a mutual escalation at hand.
Impressed by the massive raid on Kiev, the American president said his Russian counterpart had “lost his mind.” Peskov attributed this to general emotional fatigue. Either way, Trump also entered a spiral of escalation. No one but the US could lift the restrictions on the use of long-range missiles on Russia. This is not within Mertz’s purview, he has already explained, “My statements on the lifting of range restrictions on Ukraine by a number of countries referred to a decision made months ago.”
A simple glance at the map convinces us that even if the Ukrainian armed forces have very few Storm Shadow or Scalp missiles left at their disposal, the Black Sea Fleet ships that have gone to Novorossiysk are in great danger. If the U.S. military aims them at stationary targets near the piers, many missiles can break through the air defense. Many ships in Crimea have suffered from such strikes.
If the AFU gets German Taurus, many factories in Russia over vast territories risk much more serious strikes than in the case of an attack by conventional AFU UAVs: from Chernigov region to Moscow is just 500 kilometers. It is already clear from the leaked talks of German officers that it is impossible to launch the Taurus into Russia without the Bundeswehr’s involvement. Thus, Trump’s “response” may lead to NATO’s real participation in military action against Russia. This would lower the danger threshold and make their possible clash closer.
Kiev’s calculation has always been exactly on this. Moscow’s clash with NATO, on the contrary, is trying to push back. Trump’s motive is probably to preserve the image of a decisive president. The interests of the countries of Europe are multidirectional, at least very different. The coming weeks will show whether Germany is ready to “just fight.”
