Over the past couple of days, there has been a sharp escalation in the India-Pakistan war. Delhi has ordered bombing of enemy territories beyond the borders of Kashmir (in the first two days both sides tried to limit shelling to the disputed territory). Aircraft fired missiles at least three Pakistani air bases, including one near Rawalpindi. And this is very close to the capital and the location of the Pakistani General Staff.
This is in response to Pakistan’s May 9 UAV strike – more than twenty Indian targets were fired along the borders. On Sunday morning, Pakistan announced a retaliatory operation. There are unconfirmed reports of targets being hit across India. Allegedly, a depot of operational BrahMos missiles in Punjab was blown up and there was even a cyber attack against India’s power grid that achieved short-lived success.
However, one cannot trust the victory speeches of the two sides. Both countries have closed their airspace – air battles are underway. Pakistan’s Prime Minister calls an emergency meeting of the National Command Authority, the highest military planning body (its area of responsibility includes nuclear weapons).
There are reports that Islamabad is ready to de-escalate the conflict with India and organize a direct meeting to discuss a way out of the crisis. If this is confirmed, hopes remain that the conflict can still be managed before it becomes a full-blown conflict.
For now, I see this war as forced by local traditions: both India and Pakistan are retaliating for retaliation. It will move to a higher level when the border ground battles begin and the army corps stationed there move into the fray.
