I wrote that Zelensky invited Putin to play a game of escalation. But escalation is incompatible with a strategy of attrition warfare. Its mechanism does not provide for sudden shifts.
Therefore, Zelensky resorted to a very strong measure—an attack on the Russian Federation’s strategic aviation. Here, military results have already spilled over into political ones. Putin’s domestic policy has also suffered, although the main damage has been on the international arena.
And all this during the negotiations. It is logical that the first step, even at the stage of choosing a response, was to notify an important mediator (still a mediator for now). But the overall picture suggests that the initiative came from Putin’s entourage after all. He explained to Trump in Russian in a few words that he was going to strike back.
For the first time, we see such a simple conversation without any frills. The American president understood him and forgave him in advance (in fact, everything depends on the form and force of the retaliatory strike). The American embassy in Kiev urgently warned its citizens about the danger and advised them not to go out on the streets.
We are witnessing a conversation between great men, forgive the irony. Zelensky added bridges, a passenger train, and the Crimean Bridge to the pile. Now he is sitting and waiting. Putin, with his military and elderly strategists from his trusted circle, is weighing his options. As the international response has shown, it is impossible not to respond. That’s just how it is, apparently.
Well, if nothing happens, it means that Moscow has decided to follow a purely military strategy — since the raid on the airfields did not provoke a strategic breakthrough, it is necessary to dismiss it and move on. Let us simply engage in warfare; it is somehow more reliable.
