According to the very conservative tabloid Türkiye, Erdogan is working on a plan to establish naval and aviation military bases in Syria. Given that 15 years ago Turkey had three military bases abroad, and today it has seven, there is nothing surprising in the fact of consolidating victory in Syria with the help of military bases at first glance. But here are the details that raise questions, and they are based on geography.
Turkey directly borders a small Syria (maximum linear dimensions of just over 400 kilometers). On Syrian territory there are a good dozen airfields, including military bases of the Syrian army, which the Ankara-dependent fundamentalist government can hand over to the Turkish Air Force. But why do military pilots need a base there, when there is the most powerful NATO (but primarily Turkish Air Force) airbase Incirlik in comfortable proximity? From its runway, which is more than 3 kilometers long, to Idlib, the stronghold of the Turkish proxies, fly 120 kilometers, and to Aleppo 150 kilometers.
Syria has a very small sea coast – just over 140 km. And all harbors there are known, nothing decent except the port in Tartus there. But in Tartus there is still a Russian fleet logistics point (PMTO). It serves the permanent inter-fleet operational connection of the Russian Navy in the Mediterranean Sea, established in 2013.
The Russian Federation base in Tartus occupies two berths out of six. The rest is a commercial port, the development of which is now funded by Turkey. But taking into account the neighborhood, it is not clear at all what military tasks so impossible for the main anchorages of the Turkish fleet can be solved by a separate Syrian base.
The Turkish Navy has a dozen large bases, but we can neglect the Black Sea and the Aegean. From the well-established and well-equipped bases of Iskenderun and Mersin to Latakia are respectively 60 miles (114 kilometers) and 85 miles (140 kilometers). Tartus PMDO is not even close to them in terms of capabilities. Modern Turkish frigates of the German MEKO 200 project can reach there in less than two hours. And there are no tasks for the fleet in Syrian waters in the foreseeable future.
There is a logical explanation for these rumors: there is a struggle in the military sphere and intrigue has been started around the bases of Hmeimim and Tartus. In this connection, let us recall the jihadist attack on the Hmeimim airbase on the morning of May 20. What many bloggers wrote about at once bears all the hallmarks of a clash between pure propaganda and real military circumstances.
This analysis really makes me think about the deeper strategic moves behind military bases and how geography plays such a crucial role in these decisions 🌍✈️⚓️. The idea that some military expansions might be more about political games and influence than actual necessity is fascinating and definitely adds a new layer to understanding international relations. It’s a reminder that what seems obvious on the surface often hides a complex web of interests and power dynamics 👀🤔.