The Russian Foreign Ministry has put an end to the saga that began on August 2, 2019, when the US officially withdrew from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty: “The Russian Federation no longer considers itself bound by the self-imposed restrictions of the moratorium on the deployment of intermediate-range missiles.” The Pentagon initiated research and development of such missiles and their testing about 10 years before withdrawing from the treaty. The Oreshnik system, which the Russian Federation put forward as its response, is precisely a strategic response, as it is a missile with multiple warheads designed for a massive strike on European NATO targets.
The main event in this situation was Putin’s conversation with Lukashenko this week, where he announced that the military-industrial complex had begun serial production of the Oreshnik complex. In fact, if the weapon is in series production, then all other issues — quantity, deployment, staffing of units and their geography, placement of orders — have already been decided at this point. Weapons of this class take a long time to make, are produced over many years, and, as an object of special responsibility, require strict financing.
Having committed to a moratorium on the production and deployment of intermediate-range missiles after 2019, the Kremlin prepared in advance for a possible response. Since the US’s behavior in this matter, in terms of determination and relentlessness, can be compared to the movement of a paver, both sides were moving toward the deployment of medium-range missiles in Europe with a slight gap. The Kremlin lagged behind Washington, but not by much.
This is evidenced by the test of the Oreshnik on November 21, 2024. A non-nuclear strike was delivered on Yuzhmash in Dnipropetrovsk. Judging by the video of the strike, the warhead was equipped with six separable blocks. Testing is the last phase before adoption into service (sometimes these phases even coincide).
Now the deployment of systems will begin, targeting Belarus (as a launch site and location of nuclear storage facilities) and all of Europe. After all, with the exception of Switzerland and Austria, it is now entirely within NATO. The scenarios of possible crises will become much more complicated.
We can only hope that the danger to Europe will eventually lead to negotiations and a new treaty that will remove medium-range missiles from there.
