Unexpectedly, unexpectedly, the Supreme Commander-in-Chief of the Russian Armed Forces ordered his Chief of Staff on TV to stop shooting and military operations for the sake of a short truce for Easter. The speed of the response required by Kiev is such that Zelensky is in desperate straits. He had no time at all to discuss his position with the military in the remaining couple of hours.
But all the world’s front row media came out with immediate news about the Kremlin’s peace initiative. If the AFU does not undertake a real offensive (for which they had no time to prepare), the Russian army will somehow survive the usual shelling for 30 hours. Since the ceasefire period is very short, the Kremlin is guaranteed to receive evidence of non-fulfillment of the unexpected truce.
But the main thing is that at a time when the negotiations are actually hanging by a thread because the parties’ positions are too divergent, the Russian government is clearly demonstrating its peacefulness to everyone. Informationally, it has already won regardless of how these 30 hours go. Against the backdrop of the festive exchange of prisoners and seriously wounded, the initiative has won even more.
In recent days, Western media have been publishing stories about Russia’s direct interest in an immediate ceasefire. They point out the usual motives: the economy is depleted and about to collapse, replenishment of the army with equipment and personnel is becoming increasingly scarce, and a split has formed in the ruling elites into hawks and doves. In general, the same as six months ago and a couple of years ago.
In my opinion, Putin really has an interest in this story. For him, it is the negotiation process itself that is the value. It is an opportunity to present his position without intermediaries. It is a very valuable tool for gauging the mood in the opposing coalition – perhaps never has Moscow gotten such a clear picture of the disagreements in NATO as during the peace process that Trump has initiated. This is, finally, a parallel theater of foreign policy struggle, which involves military action.
And certainly Vladimir Putin, who has eaten his way through foreign policy and experienced generations of Western politicians as negotiating partners, feels much more confident on this stage than his opponents. The last thing the Kremlin wants is for impatient Trump to spit in frustration and slam the door. Hence the demonstrative peacefulness when the patience of the White House is almost exhausted. It is necessary to support the process for the sake of the process.
How long we can maneuver in this mode is unknown, too much depends on circumstances.
But the plan is undoubtedly clever and demonstrates the unearned diplomatic experience of its designers.
It’s hard to tell if this ceasefire is a genuine attempt at peace or just another political move. Either way, I hope it saves lives, even for a short time. 🙏
The timing feels suspicious. Russia gets to look good on the world stage while Ukraine is left scrambling. Still, any pause in fighting is welcome for civilians.
Seeing Easter symbols on the battlefield is so surreal. I wish both sides could use this moment to find real common ground and end the suffering.
Great breakdown of the situation. The Kremlin knows how to use media and timing to its advantage. Let’s hope the world sees through the PR and pushes for real peace.
Interesting analysis! The article really highlights how diplomacy can be used as a weapon. Putin is definitely playing the long game here.