Thousands of notes about the upcoming meeting between Trump and Putin—scenarios, positions of the parties, leaks, agenda—were unexpectedly joined by an exclusive from The New York Post: “Trump will meet with Putin only if the Russian president also meets with Volodymyr Zelensky.” This was stated to the newspaper by a White House representative.
Can the US president stop everything because of the format of the subsequent meeting? Maybe, if he personally promised Zelensky this meeting. How many times in recent months has the Ukrainian president declared on all channels his desire to meet with the Russian president in person? Dozens of times.
Before the meeting in Istanbul, he even flew there himself, just in case, hoping for a conversation. To this end, Zelensky publicly rebuked Putin for his cowardice. In general, Kiev’s demands to sharply raise the status of the delegation members in Istanbul and its dissatisfaction with the scale of Medinsky’s figure are a characteristic touch.
This is how political conditions are understood: if your interlocutor is the president, he can make the decisions you need, but if he is the president’s envoy, he cannot. The perception of negotiations as a one-time powerful and fateful action fits in with the unchanging hopes of Ukrainian society for rapid changes on the front lines with the help of “game changers” — Bayraktar, HIMARS, Leopard, TAURUS, F-16, and so on. All you have to do is push a little harder, and the stone will roll down the hill on its own.
It won’t roll: negotiations are a process, not a calculation under a jack. Belief in personal charm, persuasiveness, and passion is a commendable trait for a politician. But immediately after his inauguration, Trump set aside the principle of “nothing about Ukraine behind Ukraine’s back.” Negotiations in politics are always conducted in accordance with the weight and capabilities of the parties. In business, where Trump got his love of deals, it’s the same.
So if the American president personally gave Ukraine a guarantee that he would bring the Russian to the meeting, he can cancel everything if it doesn’t work out. Since the news was reported by The New York Post, citing not just any source, but a White House representative, there is a small chance that this story is a false start. But it is easier to persuade Zelensky to wait in the hallway than to cancel everything after such loud advances.
