Today in Washington, Aliyev and Pashinyan are expected to sign a document that different parties refer to in different ways. Trump has even called it a peace agreement. Either way, this will be a very important moment in the fate of Transcaucasia.
It is assumed that part of the document will be a scheme for Azerbaijani transit through Armenian territory via the Zangezur corridor. This was originally Russia’s idea, but according to leaks, it will be implemented by an American company, which will be tasked with organizing the operation of the 43 km road under extraterritoriality. Or with some elements of extraterritoriality.
This is the main point of contention: whose customs will check cargo entering and leaving the corridor and what powers it will be vested with. Aliyev insisted that Yerevan should not have the right of control. On its own territory, we repeat.
If earlier Moscow’s influence in the South Caucasus was indisputable and it was strange to even discuss such projects, as well as issues of war and peace in general, without it, now there are several players operating in the region at once. Moreover, Turkey has the advantage. Azerbaijan, having created a strong army, has also become an absolutely independent entity.
Thus, several forces are simultaneously trying to control a huge and geopolitically important territory. This is a direct analogue of the gray zone on the Russian-Ukrainian front. No one has complete control, but everyone can see everything and can interfere with anyone.
Russia has by no means lost its influence completely as long as it retains a military base in Armenia — Yerevan’s last hope for defending its territory — and influential pro-Russian political groups in Armenia and Georgia. The Russian Foreign Ministry has ceded primacy but retains leverage.
However, the US has now entered the game. Washington has no serious opportunities in the region. But it has a huge budget and the ability to tempt any leader in the world with the benefits of trade. Except for Comrade Xi, perhaps.
Interesting analysis of the shifting power dynamics in the South Caucasus. The involvement of multiple players makes the situation really complex, and the corridor issue seems like a tough challenge to resolve. 🌍