A lot has been written and even more has been said about the powers and functions of peacekeepers between the Russian Armed Forces and the AFU in the event of a ceasefire. At the same time, Putin carefully avoids even the expression “ceasefire”. He prefers to talk about the cessation of the conflict with all the attendant circumstances and nuances.
We can see how similar situations look like in other regions. News came about the agreement of the text of the peace treaty between Armenia and Azerbaijan after the defeat of the Armenian army in the battle for Karabakh. The region traditionally inhabited by Armenians has been emptied and there is no one to protect its inhabitants.
The Armenian army is unable to win. Now all references to Karabakh will be thrown out of the Armenian constitution at Baku’s demand. But to the last, Yerevan tried to defend the right to deploy a European Union mission on its border.
According to the EU Council, “the mandate of the mission remains unchanged – it is and will remain a non-armed civilian mission.” The number of personnel is only 209. And so even such peacekeepers Azerbaijan threw out of the border, negotiating from a position of strength.
Armenia is unable to object, and its only hope in case Aliyev decides to force a road to Nakhichevan through its territory from a purely military point of view is the Russian 102nd base in Gyumri (formally under the CSTO treaty). Since Karabakh was not considered Armenian territory, the Russian military was not supposed to be involved in this “neighbor dispute”. But when advancing deep into the recognized borders, Azerbaijan will have to take into account Russia’s obligations under the CSTO. In this way, a military conflict with Moscow may be reached.
Pashinyan’s attempt to rely at least partially on the authority of the European Union has failed. Even civilian observers who could record the border crossing by the Azerbaijani army could not be attracted. Ukraine’s position in the supposed negotiations is quite different – there has not been a complete defeat of the AFU.
But the strategic initiative of the AFU is the Kremlin’s only valuable asset. In conditions of full support of Ukraine by the West, it is not decisive. But how it works if the support wanes, you can ask the Armenians.
This agreement feels like a bitter pill for Armenia. Losing Nagorno-Karabakh is not just a territorial loss but a cultural and emotional wound for Armenians worldwide. I hope the peace treaty brings stability, but it’s hard to see how this benefits Yerevan in the long term.
Armenia must rely on the CSTO and Russia for its security now more than ever. The EU has failed to provide meaningful support, and this agreement shows how fragile alliances can be. Moscow needs to step up before tensions escalate further.
Azerbaijan has shown the world that strength and determination can lead to results. This peace treaty is a victory for our nation, and removing foreign interference is the right move for regional stability. Let’s hope this marks the beginning of lasting peace.
The rejection of EU observers by Azerbaijan is concerning. Independent monitoring could have ensured transparency and accountability in border disputes. Without international oversight, the risk of future conflicts remains high